With the midterm elections just five weeks away, Republicans are shifting their focus in the battle for Senate control, as doubts about Georgia and North Carolina grow. The party had initially seen these states as key to maintaining their Senate majority, but hopes of winning them are fading.
According to two Republican Senate campaign sources, Senate campaign leaders are looking beyond Georgia businessman Mike Collins’ challenge to first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, to focus on states they view as more competitive. Collins has struggled to broaden his support beyond Georgia’s Republican base, and Ossoff has swamped him in fundraising.
Despite Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s recent campaign and fundraising trip to Georgia, some local party leaders are publicly pessimistic about Collins’ chances. “He just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Ossoff,” said Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair.
Ossoff has already spent $57 million in advertising and has $13 million reserved through the election, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Outside groups aligned with Collins have spent more than $52 million, but Collins’ campaign confirmed it has no advertising time immediately reserved.
North Carolina Senate Seat
Retiring Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis has stopped short of suggesting GOP candidate Michael Whatley’s chances of holding the seat have vanished, but implied it’s time to take a hard look at how long to continue spending heavily against Democratic former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper.
“We’ve got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance,” Tillis told reporters. Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has been a darling of Trump, who campaigned for him this month.
The Senate GOP’s leadership super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has $19.5 million in advertising booked in North Carolina, having spent $30.4 million to date. However, the group is spending more in Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, to back up state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race viewed as very competitive. Trump endorsed Paxton over four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary, despite Paxton facing legal, ethical, and personal questions.
Trump Backs Paxton
As of Monday, Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has committed more than $20 million to ads supporting Paxton, compared to the $124 million from Senate Leadership Fund. Trump plans to visit Ohio on Saturday to support Sen. Jon Husted as the Republican tries to fend off a competitive challenge from Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Senate Republican campaign leaders have complained that spiking gas prices, a result of the seven-month-long war with Iran, are among the issues weighing against candidates that Trump has exacerbated. Campaigning with Whatley last week, Trump called higher fuel prices “a very inexpensive price to pay” for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Some candidates, such as Iowa’s GOP Senate nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson, have spoken out against the high fuel prices. “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she said last week. South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds suggested senators need to act on fuel prices, saying “we know that gas prices are too high, and diesel is way too high.”
Republican Turnout Problems
North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shoemaker said of the state’s U.S. Senate race, “There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration’s failure to address the economic concerns of voters.” The Senate Leadership Fund’s spending in Texas is a significant shift in resources, as the group had not initially planned to spend heavily in the state.
Despite this, some Republicans are pessimistic about Whatley’s chances, with former Republican chair for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District Michele Woodhouse saying she thinks Roy Cooper will win the race.
Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race viewed as very competitive. The group has pumped more than $100 million into advertising in Texas to support Paxton.
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